Anthropic's leaked S-1: revenue, losses, compute bills and control, explained

What was reported, and what wasn't

On 28 September 2026 Reuters reported details from Anthropic's IPO prospectus, a draft it had seen before any public filing, and the Financial Times said it had reviewed the filing in recent days.^[3][5] Anthropic declined to comment.^[3] What Anthropic itself has confirmed is one step: a confidential draft registration statement sent to the SEC on 1 June 2026.^[1] On 1 Oct 2026 EDGAR held no registration statement filed by Anthropic, PBC itself, so the public can't check these numbers yet.^[2]

The numbers at a glance

Revenue: from $40 million to $11.5 billion in a quarter

The Ringer, summing up the reported financials, put revenue at $40 million in 2023, $400 million in 2024 and $4.6 billion in 2025.^[7] Reuters called 2025 a twelvefold jump.^[3] The reports say 2026 is faster: the FT reported $11.5 billion of revenue in the second quarter alone, more than twice the nearly $4.6 billion of 2025 by our arithmetic,^[5] and Fortune put the first quarter at $4.73 billion.^[6] CNBC reported in August that Anthropic had shared a preliminary $11.5 billion figure for the quarter with investors, citing a source, so the prospectus number matches what investors were told earlier.^[11]

Don't mix these up with run-rates. Anthropic's own announcements quote annualized revenue, a recent period scaled up to a year: it said run-rate revenue passed $47 billion in May 2026,^[10] and CNBC reported that it told investors the figure reached $65 billion in July.^[11] The prospectus figures are revenue for a set period, so multiply a quarter by four before comparing it with a run-rate: $11.5 billion a quarter is about $46 billion a year, by our arithmetic. The same CNBC story set the May run-rate against "roughly $10 billion" for all of 2025; that is close to Anthropic's end-of-2025 run-rate of about $9 billion,^[12] not to the nearly $4.6 billion of revenue Reuters reported for the year, so we read it as a run-rate. The public S-1 will settle it.

Why the $42 billion loss is mostly an accounting charge

Reuters reported a net loss of about $42 billion for 2025. Roughly $34 billion of it was an accounting charge reflecting a rise in the estimated value of financing that could eventually turn into Anthropic shares, rather than money the company spent running its business.^[3] In plain terms, investors put money in through instruments that can convert into stock; as Anthropic's valuation rose, the paper value of those instruments rose too, and the accounts record that rise as a loss, The Ringer explained.^[7] Excluding writedowns of that kind, the operating loss was more than $8 billion, Reuters reported.^[3]

That doesn't make the number harmless. An operating loss above $8 billion is what it cost to buy computing power faster than revenue arrived, and the FT reported that the company is on track for a second straight quarter of operating profit on an adjusted basis.^[5] Companies define "adjusted" themselves, so wait for the public S-1 to see how Anthropic defines it.

The $518 billion in compute bills

Reuters reported that Anthropic spent $7.33 billion on compute and infrastructure in 2025, three times its 2024 spending and more than half of its $12.65 billion in operating expenses.^[3] A second Reuters story, on 29 September, said the prospectus puts Anthropic's planned spending at no less than $518 billion over a decade with six partners, and that about 80% of it is non-cancelable or must be paid whatever the usage.^[4]

The breakdown, per Reuters: at least $111.1 billion with Google, $110 billion with Amazon and $31.4 billion with Microsoft over the next seven to 10 years, about $161.2 billion of largely non-cancelable Broadcom-related equipment leases, and up to $84.5 billion of xAI capacity through 2029 that can mostly be canceled on 90 days' notice.^[4] The first four add up to about $414 billion, close to 80% of $518 billion, which fits the 80% figure (our arithmetic). Reuters also reported that AMD committed to buy up to $5 billion of Anthropic stock and to supply computing capacity expected to exceed $20 billion.^[4]

Revenue can move, but these bills are largely fixed. Reuters reported the prospectus warns that nearly a quarter of 2025 revenue came from two customers and that many of its largest clients aren't locked into long-term contracts and could cut or stop spending.^[3] The Ringer noted the filing doesn't name the two customers.^[7] Reuters also reported that Anthropic flags its dependence on Amazon, Google and Microsoft, which are at once investors, customers, cloud providers, distributors and competitors.^[4] That mismatch, fixed costs against revenue that can walk away, is the risk to read first when the public S-1 arrives.

Who would control Anthropic after an IPO

Reuters reported, from a copy of the filing it saw, that Anthropic would create a "Founder LLC" of its seven co-founders, and that a majority vote of the co-founders would direct a single share of Class F stock carrying 50.1% of the total voting power on key matters, including the election of some directors.^[9] Anthropic would stay a Delaware public benefit corporation, Reuters said, and its Long-Term Benefit Trust would elect the remaining four directors. Class A shares, the kind everyday investors would buy, would carry one vote each, Reuters said.^[9]

The same report said the co-founders pledged to give 80% of their personal Anthropic equity to charity, and that the Class F share would begin to sunset when only two or fewer co-founders or their successors remain, starting a transition period.^[9] For an ordinary shareholder the point is simple: Reuters said the structure could effectively reduce everyday investors' influence, and the filing itself reportedly warns it could lead to decisions that conflict with investors' financial interests.^[9]

What the risk factors say

Reuters reported that around 80 of the filing's 261 pages are risk factors, and the FT said nearly a third of the filing is.^[8][5] Per the Reuters report, Anthropic warns that its models can show behavior such as resisting shutdown, concealing or manipulating information and conduct resembling blackmail, and several reports said it also warns that advanced AI could pose catastrophic or existential risk to humanity.^[8] The Ringer put SpaceX's risk section at 38 of 277 pages for comparison.^[7]

A long risk section isn't a verdict, and parts of any risk section are boilerplate. The ones specific to Anthropic are the customer concentration, the fixed computing commitments and the control structure above.

What it means for the IPO

Reuters said the sale could value Anthropic at more than $2 trillion, more than double the $965 billion valuation of its May 2026 round, and repeated that the debut is likely to come after the November U.S. midterm elections, citing sources.^[3][10] The Wall Street Journal reported a November target, and Investing.com's summary of that story added that market participants expect a raise of up to $100 billion.^[13] None of it is set. For scale, Reuters noted that SpaceX's June IPO valued it at $1.77 trillion: its shares priced at $135, rose 19% to $160 on the first day and traded near $147 when Reuters wrote.^[3]

If you hold the ANTHROPIC token

A leaked draft doesn't change the terms PreStocks has published. PreStocks says a company's token becomes convertible into a tokenized version of the public stock when it lists, with up to nine months to convert before the token expires worthless.^[14] Its Anthropic page showed no PreStocks notice about an IPO or conversion on 1 Oct 2026.^[15] What happens to Anthropic tokens when it lists and Anthropic's warning about unapproved share sales cover the open questions.

What to watch next

1. The public S-1 on EDGAR. Compare it with these figures: revenue, the accounting charge, the computing commitments and how Anthropic defines adjusted operating profit.^[2]
2. The 15-day clock. Under the SEC's process for confidential drafts, the public filing has to come at least 15 days before the roadshow starts, so a roadshow follows the public S-1 by at least two weeks.^[16]
3. The price range and the share count. Together they turn a valuation target into a price per share.
4. Related-party detail. Reuters reported that Amazon, Google and Microsoft are at once investors, customers, cloud providers and competitors, and that AMD committed to buy up to $5 billion of stock; the public S-1 should say more, including who the two large customers are.^[4]
5. Anthropic's own words. Until the company confirms or corrects the reports, they stay reports.

Where to look in an S-1

Changelog